Each economic system is sincere — not in its speeches, however in its outcomes.
Strip away coverage paperwork, reform slogans, and nationwide aspirations, and what stays is a quieter reality: an economic system all the time optimises for what it constantly rewards. Not what it guarantees. Not what it advertises. What it pays for, protects, and permits to persist.
By that measure, Nigeria’s economic system tells a narrative very completely different from its official ambitions.
Nigeria doesn’t optimise for productiveness.
It doesn’t optimise for effectivity.
It doesn’t optimise for innovation, scale, or long-term worth creation.
It optimises for adaptation to friction.
An economic system constructed round obstacles
In high-functioning economies, friction is handled as a price to be eradicated. In Nigeria, friction has grow to be a function round which whole markets organise themselves.
Delays create brokers.
Uncertainty creates fixers.
Complexity creates gatekeepers.
Weak enforcement creates negotiators.
Based on the World Financial institution’s Doing Enterprise legacy indicators (2020), Nigerian corporations spent over 40% extra time coping with regulatory procedures than the Sub-Saharan African common. These hours didn’t disappear. They have been absorbed — transformed into charges, intermediaries, and casual providers.
What seems like inefficiency from the surface turns into a livelihood on the within.
That is the primary uncomfortable reality: giant components of Nigeria’s economic system rely not on fixing issues, however on managing them.
Why velocity is uncommon — and slowness pays
In Nigeria, velocity is dangerous. Slowness is secure.
Quick programs expose errors rapidly. Gradual programs diffuse accountability. When timelines are unclear, accountability weakens. When processes stretch indefinitely, blame turns into summary.
For this reason urgency struggles to outlive establishments.
The Nationwide Bureau of Statistics (NBS) estimates that Nigeria loses ₦10–₦15 trillion yearly to logistics inefficiencies, idle capability, and administrative delays. But inside that loss is revenue for transporters, expediters, center brokers, and casual facilitators who thrive exactly as a result of nothing strikes cleanly.
The economic system will not be malfunctioning.
It’s balanced — simply not within the path policymakers declare to need.
The incentives no one names
Look intently at who advances quickest.
Not all the time the best, however essentially the most linked.
Not all the time essentially the most expert, however essentially the most adaptable.
Not all the time essentially the most environment friendly, however essentially the most resilient to dysfunction.
Nigeria’s labour market rewards downside navigation greater than problem-solving.
A 2023 survey by SMEDAN confirmed that over 70% of MSMEs spend extra assets managing exterior constraints (energy, entry, compliance, logistics) than enhancing product high quality or scaling operations.
That’s not a cultural failure.
It’s a rational response to incentives.
Individuals grow to be glorious at what survival requires.
Why reform retains stalling
Reforms fail not solely due to politics but additionally as a result of they threaten present financial equilibria.
Each inefficiency has beneficiaries.
Each delay helps an ecosystem.
Each loophole feeds a casual worth chain.
When reforms promise “effectivity”, they’re additionally promising displacement — of brokers, brokers, fixers, and whole micro-economies constructed round navigating dysfunction.
For this reason resistance is usually quiet, technical, and procedural.
No protest. No outrage.
Simply delay.
An economic system optimised for friction will all the time defend friction – silently.
The associated fee hidden in plain sight
The deepest price will not be monetary. It’s directional.
When rewards favour navigation over creation, ambition narrows. Individuals put money into entry, not innovation. In proximity, not productiveness. In survival ways, not programs considering.
The African Growth Financial institution (AfDB) notes that Nigeria’s manufacturing productiveness has stagnated for over a decade, regardless of a rising workforce and increasing market dimension. The issue will not be labour. It’s leverage.
Effort doesn’t compound.
It circulates.
The query beneath the query
The true concern will not be whether or not Nigeria has the capability to vary.
It’s whether or not it has the motivation to.
An economic system that’s really optimised for productiveness would:
punish delay
reward velocity
make reliability worthwhile
make competence scalable
Nigeria’s economic system at present does the alternative.
And till that flips, speeches will proceed to race forward of outcomes — whereas actuality stays stubbornly constant.
As a result of ultimately, economies don’t grow to be what they declare.
They grow to be what they reward.
And Nigeria is superb at rewarding the flawed issues.
Emmanuel C. Macaulay is a improvement thinker and author who examines the unseen logic behind on a regular basis realities — the place management, programs, and design form collective progress.
