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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite tales on this weekly e-newsletter.
Bobi Wine is the stage title of Robert Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, a presidential candidate within the upcoming January 15 Ugandan election
Uganda’s January 15 election carries all of the outward rituals of democracy, however nearly none of its substance. Like our neighbours in Tanzania found final October, regimes which have held energy for many years don’t depend on the need of the folks to stay in workplace; they depend on the equipment of manipulation, coercion and worry. Hundreds of Tanzanians have been killed and wounded by the regime in an election so blatantly rigged that even the African Union and the Southern African Improvement Group needed to agree it was flawed. Except Ugandans and the worldwide group shine a vivid mild on that equipment, the identical sample will repeat itself right here.
For years, many have questioned why our rulers cling so tightly to political management and financial privilege. The reality is that the system they’ve constructed can’t survive openness or competitors. They know that in a genuinely free election they’d be held accountable for many years of financial mismanagement and greed. They know that in a good economic system, the place alternative will depend on benefit quite than patronage, they’d now not be assured entry to the wealth they’ve collected by means of state energy. Rigging elections and manipulating establishments will not be simply political methods — they’re the means by means of which the regime protects its financial pursuits and the networks that maintain it.
Rigging in Uganda shouldn’t be a single act. It isn’t a second in a tally centre when a determine is altered or a result’s switched. Rigging is a system, woven into each stage of the electoral course of, from the legal guidelines that prohibit opposition campaigns, to the safety forces that violently disperse our rallies, to the manipulation of voter registers, to the tampering with declaration types.
Complete constituencies have been flooded with army and police models whose objective is to not defend residents, however to intimidate them. We’ve got seen the Electoral Fee function not as an unbiased referee, however as an extension of the ruling get together’s command construction, refusing to carry safety forces accountable even when proof of misconduct is overwhelming.
Throughout the 2021 elections, dozens of Ugandans have been killed, a whole bunch have been kidnapped or disappeared. Journalists have been overwhelmed and whole districts changed into militarised zones whereas outcomes types have been altered, tally sheets hidden and the nation compelled to just accept numbers that bore no resemblance to actuality. Our folks voted, after which watched as their votes have been stolen. The indicators we’re seeing in run-up to the 2026 ballot counsel the identical sample — solely worse.
Already, our opposition rallies have been violently damaged up. My colleagues have been overwhelmed, injured or detained. Supporters have been arrested merely for sporting our colors.
In the meantime, the ruling get together’s latest inside primaries descended into chaos and greater than 210 official losers at the moment are standing as independents. This isn’t the behaviour of a assured motion; it’s the signal of a regime struggling to carry itself collectively. That fragmentation makes the federal government extra paranoid and extra brittle. Uganda’s rulers now not worry dropping an election; they worry dropping management.
If, as many anticipate, the election is once more marred by fraud and manipulation, the regime is more likely to transfer to silence criticism as soon as once more. It is a authorities that has repeatedly proven that when cornered, it turns to power. And in a second when its personal inside cohesion is weakening, and its management is preoccupied with succession, the probability of overreaction is larger than ever. But there’s nonetheless hope.
First, Ugandans should proceed to face agency of their dedication to peaceable, democratic change. Each citizen who resists bribery, who refuses intimidation, who insists on their dignity, strengthens our collective resolve. Second, the world should concentrate. Silence emboldens impunity. The extra seen the method is, the tougher it turns into for wrongdoing to cover within the shadows. Third, the reality should be uncovered. Each incident of intimidation, each misuse of safety forces, each try to intrude with the vote should be documented and shared.
Historical past reveals that even highly effective regimes fall when residents stand collectively and when the world refuses to look away. Our future won’t be decided by the regime’s fears, however by the folks’s braveness and the solidarity they obtain. Uganda deserves a peaceable transition, not one other stolen election.
