As defections quietly redraw Nigeria’s political map, the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) now exerts management over roughly 29 states. What stays is a slim band of governors selecting, for now, to remain outdoors federal energy. Their causes fluctuate, technique, ideology, efficiency, and political survival—however every is navigating a shrinking house for opposition politics.
1. Bala Mohammed (Bauchi): Carrying the burden of opposition management
As chair of the PDP Governors’ Discussion board, Bala Mohammed has grow to be probably the most seen image of resistance. That visibility comes at a price. Federal investigations into his administration have heightened political strain, reinforcing the notion amongst allies that opposition now attracts scrutiny as a lot because it does dissent. But Mohammed’s endurance lies in his function as a rallying determine for what stays of organised opposition on the state stage.
Why he hasn’t defected: Leaving would collapse the final credible opposition bloc amongst governors and weaken his personal political leverage.
2. Seyi Makinde (Oyo): Energy constructed with out Abuja
Makinde’s power is native, not federal. Infrastructure spending, training reforms and healthcare investments have translated into electoral credibility that cuts throughout get together traces. In Oyo, sources say defection would dilute relatively than strengthen his model, turning political capital into legal responsibility.
Why he hasn’t defected: Efficiency has made federal alignment pointless, and doubtlessly counterproductive.
3. Dauda Lawal (Zamfara): A mandate that may’t be rewritten
Lawal’s 2023 victory disrupted APC dominance in a state formed by insecurity and elite mistrust. Analysts argue that crossing over now could be interpreted as a reversal of that rupture—proof that “change” was non permanent.
Why he hasn’t defected: Defection dangers alienating the very voters who noticed his win as a rejection of outdated energy constructions.
4. Ahmadu Fintiri (Adamawa): Selecting stability over shock
In a politically delicate state, Fintiri has opted for stability. His administration has targeted on agriculture and training whereas sustaining fragile alliances throughout divides. A sudden realignment, aides say, may destabilise a state the place political equilibrium issues greater than partisan symbolism.
Why he hasn’t defected: Stability, not alignment, is his governing forex.
5. Alex Otti (Abia): Governance as political insurance coverage
Otti’s protect is supply. Clearing wage backlogs, restoring fiscal order and reviving investor confidence have broadened his attraction past Labour Get together loyalists. That governance document has decreased the urgency of searching for federal safety forward of 2027.
Why he hasn’t defected: Credibility, not get together switching, has strengthened his negotiating place.
6. Ademola Adeleke (Osun): Populism outdoors the centre
Regardless of months of hypothesis, Adeleke has stayed outdoors the APC, even after resigning from the PDP following inner disputes. His survival has relied on grassroots recognition, seen tasks and entrenched native networks in a state the APC did not reclaim electorally.
Why he hasn’t defected: Native constructions and populist attraction have to this point outweighed federal strain.
7. Chukwuma Soludo (Anambra): Cooperation with out give up
Soludo has drawn a cautious line between alignment and absorption. Whereas publicly endorsing parts of federal financial coverage, he stays in APGA, framing the get together as an expression of regional political id relatively than opposition for its personal sake.
Why he hasn’t defected: APGA affords autonomy with out isolation, and cooperation with out formal give up.
The larger image: Opposition as a high-risk technique
Public opinion is break up. Critics argue that many of those governors are “APC-aligned in spirit,” pointing to previous cooperation with President Tinubu. Opposition figures counter that scrutiny, investigations and political strain have grow to be instruments to drive conformity.
What is evident is that opposition on the state stage now calls for greater than ideology. It requires efficiency, grassroots legitimacy and a cautious calculation of when defection protects energy and when it destroys credibility.
