A socio-political activist, Austin Okai, has recognized former Vice President Atiku Abubakar and ex-Labour Get together’s presidential candidate, Peter Obi as main threats to President Bola Tinubu’s reelection bid in 2027.
Okai, a former Home of Representatives candidate of the Peoples Democratic Get together, PDP, for Dekina/Bassa Federal Constituency in 2023, mentioned former President Goodluck Jonathan can’t be a barrier to Tinubu’s reelection as a result of he could seemingly not contest in 2027.
On this interview with DAILY POST, Okai additionally spoke in regards to the probabilities of the African Democratic Congress, ADC and the PDP in 2027, stressing that they need to focus their consideration in the direction of the 2031 presidential election.
He additionally spoke on the difficulty of insecurity, evaluating President Bola Tinubu’s administration to that of his predecessor, late former President Muhammadu Buhari. Excerpts!
With the extent of motion from the PDP to the ADC, can the get together reposition for 2027?
PDP isn’t gone, politics is cash, it’s an costly enterprise, so when you might have a sitting governor endorsing the president of one other get together, who’s going to fund his personal get together? Immediately, it’s Makinde that’s bankrolling the get together.
Wike was desirous about chasing Atiku away, he’s endorsing the president, so if you see the who-is-who are endorsing APC then who’re you that’s simply an upcoming? You may be scared, so the get together could come up however whoever tells you that PDP can put up a superb struggle on this coming election is mendacity as a result of it’s going to be troublesome.
The governors are the Chief returning officers of the get together of their numerous states. Someone like Adeleke had endorsed APC, mechanically he’s going to show to Tinubu, so that’s simply the truth. So, saying that the get together could seemingly come again, sure – perhaps in 2031 – when you might have individuals overtly sitting down like Tambuwal and Sule Lamido endorsing the coalition. It’s not solely Wike alone that’s doing this factor, it has been normalized, so being in that get together now means both you’re working for APC not directly or you’re a political novice.
So PDP can’t stand alone just like the ADC coalition and APC?
You’ll be able to’t say that as a result of the final election has handed and simply yesterday’s election, it was between PDP which gained two states, the three events that gained are PDP, NNPP, and APC – ADC doesn’t have anybody now, do you see any Home of Representatives member that joined ADC? However individuals are becoming a member of APC, let’s see what ADC will give you however I see a serious drawback there.
I attended their inauguration in Kogi State and if ADC is sensible now, they need to settle for Nafiu, the deputy Nationwide Chairman from Gombe who declared himself Nationwide Chairman. Let Atiku and one other chief of ADC persuade him to do a Nationwide Conference the place they will take over the Nationwide management of the get together.
From the data I’ve, David Mark was introduced the interim Nationwide Chairman on July twentieth and on July twenty first, he left PDP – meaning he was nonetheless a member of PDP when he was introduced the Nationwide Chairman of ADC. So you may’t be the Nationwide Chairman of a celebration in case you are not even a member. So there’s some technicality in that matter, now that they’re in court docket, they don’t understand how honest the Judiciary will probably be – although I could also be improper. Both you maintain a NEC assembly to vary the management otherwise you maintain the Nationwide conference.
I want ADC, there have to be a stronger opposition, the prettier of our democracy advocated for 2 get together system and that’s simply it as a result of the extra you break up the opposition votes the stronger the ruling get together will probably be, so if PDP doesn’t have the capability to face as much as ADC in 2027, then let ADC fingers ahead however in doing that they need to watch out as a result of having seen so many disaster in PDP, I can let you know that the get together’s administration could be very key and essential as a result of the legislation is ignorant to it till confirmed.
In the event you bear in mind, the likes of former governor of Sokoto State, Shekarau and Amaechi had been advocating for a recent political get together to keep away from this. what is going on and the precedent, I’m being cautious as a result of there have to be a stronger opposition that might put the ruling get together on its toes however how we go about it’s what I don’t know.
What occurred when Nwosu handed over to David Mark, was that what is called NEC assembly in ADC? As a result of I noticed Leke Abejide complaining about the identical factor, if that’s the NEC assembly tremendous, meaning we’re good to go and if that isn’t a NEC assembly, it signifies that we’re standing on a time bomb. We must always get in Nafiu the deputy Nationwide Chairman whether or not he’s working for the APC, if they’ve given him cash, we can also additionally give him cash to say our personal aspect as a result of Nwosu has already resigned and may’t lead the get together to the Nationwide conference, there have to be a correct nationwide conference supervised by INEC, that’s what I assumed it must be.
Nigerians throughout the Northern area have accepted the ADC instead however we should not fail them by way of us doing what we’re presupposed to do, by way of technicalities and authorized procedures and processes.
With Atiku’s departure from PDP and Peter Obi’s return not sure, what are the probability of the likes of Saraki or Makinde selecting the presidential ticket?
Peter Obi has not declared he’s coming again, there have been strikes from PDP. I noticed Babangida Aliyu and I used to be shocked when he mentioned the North ought to tolerate Tinubu for eight years. So if any person like Babangida Aliyu is asking us to tolerate Tinubu like Buhari, there’s confusion. So if Obi comes again to PDP it will likely be good, there’s the hearsay of Jonathan coming again however I don’t see Obi combating Jonathan as a result of politically, Jonathan is Obi’s boss, we had been as soon as collectively. Obi and I had been members of the PDP’s a number of committees underneath Jonathan when he was appointed because the Chairman of the SEC board after his tenure expired in 2013-14 thereabout, so there’s that mutual respect.
But when Makinde can also be within the race, you may’t take Makinde away, he has a struggle chest. Saraki can’t contest as a result of the ticket is already going to the South and he’s from the North. It’s in 2031 that every one the events are going again to the North besides if ADC does in any other case.
The most important mistake was making the ADC appear to be a Northern get together and we aren’t doing a regional system.
Does that imply that Northerners are extra in ADC?
As a result of it’s the North that’s crying about marginalization, we’re Northerners and I’m a Northerner – we have to be very cautious, we don’t know the place is marginalization right here, however in politics we are able to system any means to attain your purpose, together with mischief, blackmail and tribalism is allowed, however no matter would divide us extra must be discouraged.
At this time, we within the North know what we did to Jonathan – so many theories, how we accused Jonathan of making Boko Haram to kill Muslims and scale back the Northern inhabitants. We had points with Southsouth, as an alternative of permitting Jonathan to finish his time period he was chased out of energy by the Northern conspiracy. I used to be a member of the Presidential Marketing campaign Council then, the very best organ of the marketing campaign group.
At this time, we are saying God forbid that we enable an Igbo man to develop into president due to Common Nzeogwu Kaduna coup and Biafra has led to this embargo that an Igbo man should not be president, that any Igbo man now could be a pro-Biafra. The North doesn’t need an Easterner to be president, the North doesn’t need the Southsouth to be president, the Southwest has all the time been with us, we at the moment are accusing it of marginalization. The North could also be alone. In the event you have a look at the North now, the Northcentral isn’t being effectively acknowledged in apportioning political events.
In the event you give an appointment to a Southern Kaduna Christian now, a core Northerner is not going to see him as being a Northerner. The best way issues are going, we could draw the map of the North once more as a result of we are able to’t simply be solely North within the mouth and we aren’t good to return to the desk to eat.
In our marketing campaign, the unity of the nation have to be paramount. The very fact stays that the North’s worst mistake is for us to have the Southsouth, Southeast, and Southwest coming collectively towards the North. As a result of the core North is not going to benefit from the help of states within the Northcentral, I can wager you that.
So we have to be very cautious, nationwide unity must be paramount, crying about appointments, when your time comes you do the identical factor identical to Buhari did. Nepotism was institutionalized in Nigeria by Buhari, Jonathan didn’t try this, he had so many Northerners in key positions and within the 2015 election these key Northerners that Jonathan gave energy betrayed him as a result of he was not a Muslim, so we’ve got to watch out.
We shouldn’t be behaving like Biafra individuals too as a result of the way in which that they’re going, they could be behaving like Nnamdi Kanu. There will probably be no distinction from what Kanu a pro-Biafra is doing; have a look at what Babachir Lawal was saying on Channels Tv that when you vote a Yoruba man into energy he’ll misbehave, how can somebody like Babachir Lawal, a Christian minority from Adamawa open his mouth to say such, it’s a humiliation since you are inciting ethnic rigidity, are we having issues with Yoruba? Was Obasanjo not a president? He Babachir Lawal that’s speaking right this moment, was he not the Secretary to the Authorities of the Federation the place he was accused of stealing cash and was given a possibility, but he mentioned the court docket has quashed it?
I’ve performed the ethnic agenda recreation even on the state stage and I’m nonetheless regretting it right this moment, I labored towards my very own finest pal – Dino Melaye of which I can’t have a look at his face right this moment – a time got here that some individuals noticed me as a tribal bigot, the entire Ebira individuals see me as any person who hates Ebira individuals. At this time, a few of us are regretting it, not regretting that we stood as much as a authorities that was failing however regretting that we stood up within the identify of tribal recreation. So something that might undermine the Nationwide unity must be averted as a result of Nigeria is fragile, poverty is on the rise, out of college kids is on the rise, unemployment charge is on the rise, costs of important commodities and every day good are costly, so what comes out from the mouth of our leaders must be one thing that might not undermine the Nationwide unity as a result of it’s very key.
Why is PDP quiet and never behaving like the highest opposition get together that it must be?
The get together goes by means of disaster and there’s an intentional compromise to weaken the get together, is like there’s a normal that the get together have to be weakened forward, however the individuals behind it didn’t see the approaching of the coalition, ADC, however they aren’t resting as a result of I can let you know that there’s disaster within the ADC too right this moment, the disaster of management, outsmarting one another, and so far as politics is a recreation of curiosity, you may by no means take away disaster.
Have a look at what occurred, El-Rufai was eyeing SDP for use, Amaechi needed to register a brand new get together, ADA, which might have appealed to Atiku, however he went for ADC which was his preliminary association.
Can PDP launch a comeback in 2027 or 2031?
It must be 2031, 2027 is gone. In the event you do a nationwide conference by November which might usher in a brand new management of the get together, however how far can they go as a result of essentially the most strongest unit of the PDP was once the governorship discussion board and the discussion board is compromised, aside from Zamfara and Makinde who was a part of the G-5, however how far can Makinde go? Aside from the Governor of Bauchi State, what number of of them are dedicated to the get together. From what Osun State did, its nearly as good as out, most of those Southsouth states that used to fund the get together are gone – they’ve misplaced Delta, Akwa Ibom, Edo and co – the oil states that had been funding the PDP are gone, PDP’s main energy had been the oil states. No Okowa, no extra Udom Emmanuel, they’re all gone. The get together could put of their finest however I don’t know.
With the variety of political stalwarts within the ADC, can the get together defeat Tinubu in 2027 or wait until 2031?
Why will they wait, ADC can win, it depends upon the place they decide their candidate from and I’m of the opinion that they go South as that’s simply the truth.
Will or not it’s higher for Atiku to step down and help a youthful candidate or ought to he contest?
Why? He’s certified, there isn’t a age restrict for one to be president since that has been his dream job, that has been his ambition.
Can Atiku give the ADC coalition a greater probability at successful?
What occurred to him? Can’t he do it? Are you saying Nigerians don’t like him? If we’re to take a look at previous antecedents, Buhari gained’t have been president. Buhari contested a number of occasions from ANPP, APP, to CPC, and on the finish he turned a president underneath APC, you don’t ask individuals to surrender on their life’s dream.
Can ADC coalition defeat the ruling APC with the likes of Atiku and co?
Every of them have totally different concepts and a few individuals imagine that the Southern candidate must be allowed to finish their eight years since Buhari from the North simply completed eight years. Atiku is calculating primarily based on Yar’Adua’s dying and a few individuals are saying for the reason that formation of Nigeria, the North has had the bigger share of energy, so what occurred underneath Yar’Adua and Jonathan was a divine prevalence. I strongly imagine until tomorrow that the Southern area must be allowed, we shouldn’t be suffocating individuals out of energy, we did that towards Southsouth when Jonathan was pissed off out and was massively voted out by the Northern voting bloc. Ought to we do the identical factor to the Southwest, ought to the North be left alone? Regardless of the inhabitants, if these three areas come collectively – most of those populations you’re seeing usually are not even actual.
Speaking of election manipulation, anyone can manipulate. Some individuals sit down and write the overall variety of the voters, so when you go by that approach, Abia can convey 1.6 million votes as a result of they’ve greater than two million voters registered, what’s going to you do? No area has the monopoly of election manipulation. That the opposite areas allowed the North to reap the benefits of that, it shouldn’t be used to bully different areas.
Consistent with that, if ADC decides to go South, Obi has give you the proposal of 1 time period which is cheap, it’s according to permitting the South to finish their rights years that some individuals are advocating for Jonathan’s return. A bunch in Northeast held a convention calling on Jonathan to return again, that could be a good calculation and if issues occur this fashion, Atiku could also be out if he contests going towards the zoning association, although it was not penned down however we name it mutual understanding or mutual political association. It’s good and okay, it’s on that foundation you may say Atiku ought to enable Obi, Jonathan or anybody else.
So which candidate do you see as a possible menace to Tinubu going into 2027?
The most important menace to APC right this moment is Obi as a result of they know that Jonathan could not contest as a result of some individuals see him to be weak, some individuals see him to not be a determined particular person. Amongst all of them from the South, Amaechi is there, Obi, and Makinde are there however Obi is forward, each week he’s in a single exercise or the opposite and the speed of acceptability he’s getting within the North is rising.
However Tinubu too has been in a position to play some video games, right this moment it will likely be troublesome to take Plateau, Southern Kaduna, a few of these swing states, now we’ve got Dogara in Southern Bauchi, Dogara – Tafawa Balewa native authorities, these Christian areas, these locations are extra highly effective than earlier than, we’ve got governor Fintiri not working for Atiku in Adamawa – a sitting governor could be very highly effective. Whenever you put a few of these swing areas, Southern Kaduna has Chief of Defence Employees, a college now, their key males are being appointed.
So there’s a change within the political mapping for anyone to suppose that they will get it simple, you may’t. You’ve gotten a president that’s concentrating on Southsouth too and if Obi turns into a working mate, the South is not going to vote for him as a result of the Southern area desires the presidency not working mate. Obi in his personal knowledge got here up with the proposal of 1 single time period which is okay, although some individuals imagine that after he will get the ability, who can have a look at the president’s face and say this isn’t the settlement that they had, they did that to Jonathan – so these are the realities.
However the concept that Atiku ought to step apart, you don’t ask any person to step apart on their life ambition. If they are saying Atiku shouldn’t contest, meaning any person is afraid of him and meaning he’s a menace. Why will individuals say he mustn’t contest, are you funding him? The most important menace will probably be Peter Obi if Jonathan isn’t contesting.
Even the most important menace we’re speaking about is that every one opposition ought to unite underneath ADC; ought to Atiku contest, PDP contest, and Labour Get together produce a candidate, it should nonetheless break up the opposition votes and on the finish the ruling get together will take benefit.
We are able to’t defeat Tinubu with divided opposition, take it to the financial institution as a result of incumbency alone is 40 p.c of the votes. That you’re an incumbent candidate of the ruling get together, you’re certain of 40 p.c votes, you might have present buildings that might ship that, you might have aides, ministers, your get together has more cash and you’ve got authorities establishments that might be just right for you.
How has Tinubu’s administration fared within the space of insecurity contemplating latest arrests of terrorists? Is it doing sufficient on this space?
Sure, this authorities is doing extremely effectively when in comparison with Buhari’s period, it was so horrible underneath Buhari. It was worse that the Emir of Daura was kidnapped underneath Buhari, the identical place the place Buhari got here from, the abductors invaded his village and took away his Emir, which is unusual.
For the primary time in over eight years, we’re travelling from Abuja to Kaduna, there was a time if you couldn’t. They kidnapped individuals even from a prepare on this nation. Abuja-Lokoja turned a dying entice and when you succeeded in touring from Abuja to Kaduna you go to church to present thanksgiving.
You noticed the arrest of Ansaru terrorist chief by DSS and there’s nonetheless areas like Itobe to Anyigba, there are kidnappers, they kidnapped individuals nearly each week on that street, there have been so lots of them in Kogi West till the DSS carried out loads of operations with vigilante. Now their bases are being attacked every day. You see Bello Turji calling for give up of arms as a result of he’s surrounded by DSS.
Why do you suppose Bello Turji has all the time evaded arrest by safety brokers?
It’s as a result of there have to be some leaks, he will get data forward of them and if he does, the safety businesses have to be correctly filtered. He narrowly escapes safety businesses, that signifies that one thing is improper someplace.
Are Nigerians safer now when in comparison with Buhari’s administration?
Evaluate Tinubu’s administration of two years to Buhari’s eight years, there’s a severe enchancment underneath Tinubu. Although there have been killings in Plateau and Benue States which we by no means anticipated however there have been some areas that had been no-go areas earlier than like Southern Kaduna, however there’s peace there now when in comparison with earlier than and even within the Southeast. The killings by IPOB’s unknown gunmen have drastically been addressed, although there have been flashy areas the place this factor occurred but it surely wasn’t because it was then, so in that space, they’re doing effectively and will preserve the momentum.
