BY CHARLES KUMOLU, Deputy Editor
The gale of defections from opposition events to the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC, seems to recommend that Nigeria could also be tilting dangerously in the direction of a one-party system. Whereas such strikes are sometimes dismissed as a part of political evolution, the frequency and motives behind the defections have triggered contemporary considerations concerning the well being of the nation’s democratic experiment. Dissecting the rising sample and its implications, famend civil society chief and Professor of Political Science, Odion Akhaine, unpacks the structural and ideological weaknesses plaguing Nigeria’s political events. On this no-holds-barred interview, he explains why occasion tradition has did not take root, how political survivalism drives the shifting allegiances, and why Nigeria’s opposition might already be out of time to mount any severe problem to President Bola Tinubu in 2027.
With an insider’s perspective drawn from years of educational inquiry and civic engagement, Akhaine warns that what’s unfolding isn’t only a political technique, but in addition a systemic disaster.
Trying on the gale of defections from
opposition events to the ruling occasion, do you suppose it is sufficient to say that Nigeria is regularly changing into a one-party state?
Given our authoritarian historical past, individuals are sure to interpret tendencies akin to this as an inclination in the direction of a one-party state. However that doesn’t encapsulate the fact of the Nigerian polity. Nigeria is a various society with many ethnic teams. We casually say there are 250 ethnic teams, however they’re greater than 600.
That sort of society is a market of concepts. To that extent, you can’t put these concepts into one field. It is extremely inconceivable to take action. it from the deficit facet, you’ll realise that we now have not had a celebration tradition for the reason that creation of the Fourth Republic. A celebration tradition that’s underlined by a transparent ideology, we now have not had it. Subsequently, individuals transfer from one occasion to the opposite relying on the climate. In Nigeria, there aren’t any political events. What we now have are particular goal autos. A politician can kind three political events and bid for presidency or governorship on a platform of 1. If he loses, he’ll go to a different occasion, which was additionally shaped by him. In abstract, we don’t have a celebration tradition. And the Republic can also be aware of this deficit. That’s the reason they tried to place in place legal guidelines that invalidate the tenure of occasion candidates who soar from one occasion to the opposite. However once more, the regulation has been politicised and given totally different interpretations so that individuals can soar from one occasion to the opposite. The query to ask is: are they doing it on the premise of ideology? The reply isn’t any.
They’re doing it on the premise of what they’ll get from the ruling occasion. It’s for self-aggrandisement. That’s the foundation of what they’re doing. Incumbents in Nigeria have additionally weaponised the Financial and Monetary Crimes Fee (EFCC) and the Impartial Corrupt Practices and Different Associated Offences Fee (ICPC), when it comes to those that have embezzled our commonwealth. They’re given respite once they transfer to the ruling occasion. These are the points of interest for the defections—not integrity or {that a} occasion is doing nicely in workplace or has ideological route.
You mentioned Nigeria’s political tradition continues to be evolving. If that’s the case, can the development be attributed to the evolution of Nigeria’s political tradition?
If you happen to take a look at historical past holistically, you’ll be able to say it’s a part of political evolution and political growth in Nigeria. However I believe it’s only a adverse facet of it. We will’t say it’s qualitative and even quantitative. It’s on the adverse facet. I believed the political elites ought to be capable to defeat this tendency inside the political growth of Nigeria. We can not simply describe it as evolutionary. It’s somewhat a contradictory dynamic within the political growth of Nigeria that must be remodeled.
What is basically answerable for this absence of occasion tradition, and the way do you suppose events can evolve to ideological tradition?
Social gathering tradition implies that that you must have a membership that has the identical ideological orientation, the identical worldview, and a standard curiosity. That’s the foundation for political events. There also needs to be an institutional ingredient of a political occasion, which incorporates summary institutional ideas. For instance, events ought to have inner self-discipline. Members should adhere to the foundations of the occasion. Everyone should espouse what the occasion believes in and advocate for it. We don’t have that. Social gathering is meant to be supreme. In Nigeria, as soon as a president or a governor is elected, he turns into the chief of the occasion and dictates what occurs within the occasion. We additionally don’t have a tradition of impartial financing, which permits members to pay dues used for occasion operations. Events depend on moneybags who dictate their guidelines and affairs. There isn’t any tradition of the large image, which entails forming a celebration, constructing it, and making certain it endures and weathers storms. In Nigeria, as soon as the occasion is not related for the particular goal it’s meant for, which is to seize energy, that occasion is gone. For instance, the ANC in South Africa was shaped in 1912, fought the apartheid system, and stays the dominant occasion in South Africa. That’s the reason I mentioned we don’t have a celebration tradition.
Since Nigeria has been battling with this way of defections, particularly within the Fourth Republic, some have known as for the introduction of a two-party state to make sure the nation has robust events like we had within the ill-fated Third Republic as an alternative of small events. What do you suppose?
It’s not a query of sure or no. We all know the way it was experimented with within the Babangida period and the way the method was truncated. Not less than, the lesson from that period was that individuals have been now constructing cross-ethnic alliances for energy. So that you can win elections on this nation, it’s a must to go to different elements of the nation to canvass for votes. In a manner, it was selling nationwide unity. However that doesn’t imply you’ll decree a two-party system in Nigeria. As contradictory because it seems, we now have truly had two dominant events within the nation. It’s not a two-party state, however we now have two dominant events. It is rather like in Britain, the place Labour and Conservative are the dominant events, however different events exist. Within the US, Republicans and Democrats are the 2 dominant events, however others additionally exist. It’s the identical in Germany and different elements of Europe. That’s the development. Nevertheless, the problem is that, whereas these events are ideologically segregated, in Nigeria there isn’t any ideological boundary. It’s an all-comers affair. If we had an excellent idea of occasion formation, events could possibly be shaped on the native authorities degree solely to contest native authorities elections. However we now have occasion guidelines which are counterproductive.
For example, some guidelines require a celebration to have workplaces in two-thirds of the nation to be recognised. That shouldn’t be. Events ought to be allowed to kind on the state or native degree to contest state assemblies, governorships, and native authorities elections. If we do this, Nigeria could also be higher off. It could assist us develop examples of performing governance fashions throughout states.
If you happen to have been to dissect the opposition as presently constituted, what would you say is their drawback?
I believe the issue of the opposition is mainly narcissistic and self-serving. It speaks to the absence of ideology. If you happen to had an ideology, it means you’ve got a blueprint on how the nation ought to be ruled and the way it pertains to its exterior surroundings. We don’t have that. That’s why I mentioned the present political actors see events as particular goal autos for the attainment of energy and all of the points of interest that include energy.
As a political scientist and somebody who actively participated in society, do you see indicators that recommend defections could also be because of coercion?
One of many causes individuals defect is as a result of they don’t wish to be neglected of the present. They don’t wish to miss out on the method of sharing the nationwide cake. Wherever the land is fertile, they transfer in. What chances are you’ll regard as a component of compulsion is that many politicians have dirty their arms by tampering with the nationwide treasury. They’re answerable to the EFCC and ICPC. To flee accountability, they run to the ruling occasion. That’s what occurred in Delta State. After they say they defected to be “linked to the centre,” they don’t seem to be telling the reality. They’ll say that to the marines.
You’ll agree that preliminary politicking forward of the 2027 elections has commenced. Given the gale of defections, do you suppose the opposition nonetheless has an opportunity of salvaging its construction?
In politics, they are saying a day is sort of a century for manipulation. However the opposition, as presently constituted, doesn’t even qualify as an official opposition. They’re in full disarray. And for those who take a look at energy politics in Nigeria, energy is prone to stay within the South for the following six years. The query is whether or not Asiwaju will likely be re-elected. If a candidate comes from the North, I can let you know the whole South will vote for Tinubu. This time it gained’t be about efficiency—it will likely be based mostly on sentiments. I don’t see the opposition altering the equation. If you happen to carry a candidate from the East with out the electoral capital to defeat a candidate from the South-West, it gained’t work. And time is simply too brief to construct the sort of alliance required to unseat an incumbent. For my part, that is the time for constructing and appropriating political capital on the state degree—not on the central degree.
However we’ve seen examples in Kenya, Benin Republic, Senegal, and even Nigeria, the place last-minute alliances led to opposition victories. May that occur right here?
We political scientists describe politics because the artwork of the inconceivable. Something is feasible. However the Kenyan elites aren’t the identical as Nigerian elites. The political elites in Nigeria are the worst. They don’t pursue the larger image; they give attention to the rapid. That’s a serious disadvantage in Nigeria’s political tradition. Something can occur between now and 2027, however the main drawback is the character of energy distribution within the nation. The understanding is that the South ought to do eight years earlier than energy rotates to the North. That context is already shaping the alliances being shaped. If you happen to carry a candidate from the South-West or East to unseat Asiwaju, I doubt if it might work.
In abstract, is it correct to say we’re only a step away from changing into a one-party state? Are the options of a one-party state current now?
One of many issues I discover disturbing is the growing intolerance of oppositional voices. I’m not simply referring to events just like the PDP. I’m additionally speaking about peculiar residents who communicate out. Their harassment isn’t good for the polity. It turns into much more harmful if we find yourself with one dominant occasion within the nation. It’s not good for democracy.
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