Nigeria’s meals inflation might fall to single digits for the primary time in additional than a decade, underpinned by improved harvests, an import waiver coverage on choose meals, easing logistics bottlenecks and a steadier naira after years of sharp worth will increase that strained family budgets.
Meals inflation in Africa’s most populous nation eased to 10.84 p.c year-on-year in December 2025, a big drop from practically 40 p.c in December 2024, pushed by a revised methodology and decrease costs for staples like greens and tubers.
The final time Nigeria recorded single-digit meals inflation was in Could 2015, when costs stood at 9.78 p.c.
Learn additionally: How Nigeria can curb food inflation and restore purchasing power – World Bank
Economists polled by BusinessDay see meals costs cooling additional in January 2026 forward of the official knowledge due on the fifteenth of February, successfully exiting the double-digit mark.
That can align the West African nation with its friends like Kenya and Ghana which recorded 7.8 p.c and three.9 p.c meals inflation, respectively in January 2026.
“Meals inflation ought to have grow to be single digits in December if not for the revision of the Client Value Index. The revision added about 3 p.c to all of the metrics. So, within the subsequent studying, meals inflation ought to be in single digits on a stronger change charge,” Ayo Teriba, chief govt officer of Economics Associates, advised BusinessDay.
The easing in meals costs comes because the naira posts its strongest outing in 13 years in 2025, gaining 7.5 p.c after a turbulent interval that drove up the price of imported staples and farm inputs.
Decrease exchange-rate volatility has helped mood worth expectations, at the same time as structural weaknesses, together with poor storage, insecurity in farming communities and excessive logistics prices proceed to restrict the tempo of disinflation.
If meals costs hit the single-digit ranges, policymakers are prone to welcome the slowdown, as meals accounts for greater than half of Nigeria’s shopper worth basket and has been a serious driver of broader inflation.
Learn additionally: Food inflation falls for fifth straight month to 11.08% in November
A sustained decline may give the central financial institution sufficient room for an additional charge reduce when it meets in direction of the top of this month, providing some reduction to an economic system grappling with weak shopper demand, based on Muda Yusuf, CEO Centre for Promotion of Non-public Enterprise (CPPE).
“Although the CBN has been very cautious regarding rates of interest, primarily based on the inflation trajectory, I count on that there ought to be a minimum of some margin reduce in rates of interest within the subsequent assembly,” Yusuf stated.
Boon for customers, ache for farmers
Nigerians admit to seeing respite in the price of dwelling because of crashes in meals costs. A BusinessDay market survey in Lagos, Nigeria’s megacity, reveals customers’ pleasure in falling meals costs throughout a number of worth chains.
“I can attest that costs of meals have fallen,” stated Religion Ochonogu, a Lagos-based dealer. “As right now final 12 months, I used to be shopping for meals stuff in bits, however in the present day, I can afford to purchase in bulk.”
Ochonogu is like many Nigerians, who say the crash in meals costs has introduced immense reduction to their households. “My household is happier. They’ll eat with out pondering an excessive amount of. I’m even in a position to afford a bag of rice, one thing I couldn’t afford final 12 months,” she advised BusinessDay.
As of early 2025, a bag of international rice throughout totally different markets in Africa’s most populous nation prices a mean of N88,000, relying on model sort. Nonetheless, it prices a mean of N57,00o in the present day for a similar international rice. This displays a 54 p.c fall in a single 12 months.
Learn additionally: Kenya’s food inflation eases to 6-month low despite deepening drought
Comparable traits path different meals commodities. Costs of a giant basket of tomatoes have dropped by 65 p.c to a mean of N35,000 in Mile 12 Market, down from about N100,000 a 12 months in the past.
“It’s a blessing that I can now afford to purchase foodstuffs with out concern of getting broke,” Persistence Emmanuel, a Lagos dealer, advised BusinessDay. “I purchased tomatoes lately and the amount was a lot for the value. I’m glad.”
However whereas customers see reduction, farmers depend losses. The import waiver coverage that led to a crash in meals costs stirred one of many largest post-harvest and monetary losses in Nigeria’s agric sector.
