New Delhi, India – When US President Donald Trump introduced a trade deal with India on Monday this week, he declared that New Delhi would pivot away from Russian vitality as a part of the settlement.
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Trump mentioned, had promised to cease shopping for Russian oil, and as a substitute purchase crude from the US and from Venezuela, whose president, Nicolas Maduro, was kidnapped by US particular forces in early January. Since then, the US has successfully taken management of Venezuela’s mammoth oil business.
In return, Trump dialled down commerce tariffs on Indian items from an general 50 p.c to simply 18 p.c. Half of that fifty p.c tariff was levied final 12 months as punishment for India shopping for Russian oil, which the White Home maintains is financing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s struggle in Ukraine.
However since Monday, India has not publicly confirmed that it has dedicated to both ceasing its buy of Russian oil or embracing Venezuelan crude, analysts notice. Dmitry Peskov, a Kremlin spokesperson, informed reporters on Tuesday that Russia had obtained no indication of this from India, both.
And switching from Russian to Venezuelan oil will likely be removed from easy. A cocktail of different elements – shocks to the vitality market, prices, geography, and the traits of various sorts of oil – will complicate New Delhi’s choices about its sourcing of oil, they are saying.
So, can India actually dump Russian oil? And may Venezuelan crude substitute it?
What’s Trump’s plan?
Trump has been pressuring India to cease shopping for Russian oil for months. After Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the US and European Union positioned an oil worth cap on Russian crude in a bid to restrict Russia’s skill to finance the struggle.
In consequence, different international locations together with India started shopping for massive portions of low-cost Russian oil. India, which earlier than the struggle sourced solely 2.5 p.c of its oil from Russia, grew to become the second-largest shopper of Russian oil after China. It presently sources round 30 p.c of its oil from Russia.
Final 12 months, Trump doubled commerce tariffs on Indian items from 25 p.c to 50 p.c as punishment for this. Later within the 12 months, Trump additionally imposed sanctions on Russia’s two greatest oil firms – and threatened secondary sanctions towards international locations and entities that commerce with these companies.
Because the abduction of Maduro by US forces in early January, Trump has successfully taken over the Venezuelan oil sector, controlling gross sales money flows.
Venezuela additionally has the most important confirmed oil reserves on this planet, estimated at 303 billion barrels, greater than 5 occasions bigger than these of the US, the world’s largest oil producer.
However whereas getting India to purchase Venezuelan oil is smart from the US’s perspective, analysts say this could possibly be operationally messy.
How a lot oil does India import from Russia?
India presently imports practically 1.1 million barrels per day (bpd) of Russian crude, in line with analytics firm Kpler. Underneath Trump’s mounting strain, that’s decrease than the typical 1.21 million bpd in December 2025 and greater than 2 million bpd in mid-2025.
One barrel is equal to 159 litres (42 gallons) of crude oil. As soon as refined, a barrel sometimes produces about 73 litres (19 gallons) of petrol for a automotive. Oil can be refined to provide all kinds of merchandise, from jet gas to home goods together with plastics and even lotions.
Has India stopped Russian oil purchases?
India has lowered the quantity of oil it buys from Russia over the previous 12 months, however it has not stopped buying it altogether.
Underneath rising strain from Trump, final August, Indian officers known as out the “hypocrisy” of the US and EU pressuring New Delhi to again off from Russian crude.
“In actual fact, India started importing from Russia as a result of conventional provides had been diverted to Europe after the outbreak of the battle,” Randhir Jaiswal, India’s Overseas Ministry spokesperson, mentioned then. He added that India’s resolution to import Russian oil was “meant to make sure predictable and inexpensive vitality prices to the Indian shopper”.
Regardless of this, Indian refiners, presently the second-largest group of consumers of Russian oil after China, are reportedly winding up their purchases after clearing present scheduled orders.
Main refiners like Hindustan Petroleum Company Ltd (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL), and HPCL-Mittal Power Ltd (HMEL) halted buying from Russia following the US sanctions towards Russian oil producers final 12 months.
Different gamers like Indian Oil Company (IOC), Bharat Petroleum Company, and Reliance Industries will quickly cease their purchases.
What occurs if India all of the sudden stops shopping for Russian oil?
Even when India wished to cease importing Russian oil altogether, analysts argue it might be extraordinarily expensive to take action.
In September final 12 months, India’s oil and petroleum minister, Hardeep Singh Puri, informed reporters that it would additionally sharply push up vitality costs and gas inflation. “The world will face severe penalties if the provides are disrupted. The world can’t afford to maintain Russia off the oil market,” Puri mentioned.
Analysts are inclined to agree. “A whole cessation of Indian purchases of Russian oil could be a serious disruption. A right away halt would spike international costs and threaten India’s financial progress,” mentioned George Voloshin, an impartial vitality analyst primarily based in Paris.
Russian oil would seemingly be diverted extra closely in direction of China and into “shadow” fleets of tankers that ship sanctioned oil secretly by flying false flags and switching off location gear, Voloshin informed Al Jazeera. “Mainstream tanker demand would shift towards the Atlantic Basin, almost certainly rising international freight charges consequently,” he famous.
Sumit Pokharna, vp at Kotak Securities, famous that Indian refineries have reported strong margins within the final two years, majorly benefitting from the discounted Russian crude.
“In the event that they transfer to higher-costing, just like the US or Venezuela, then uncooked materials value would improve, and that will squeeze their margins,” he informed Al Jazeera. “If it goes past management, they could should cross the surplus onto customers.”
Can India cease shopping for Russian oil altogether?
It could not be capable of. Considered one of India’s two non-public refiners, Nayara Power, is majority-Russian-owned and beneath heavy Western sanctions. The Russian vitality agency Rosneft holds a 49.13 p.c stake within the firm, which operates a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery in India’s Gujarat, PM Modi’s residence state.
Nayara is the second-largest importer of Russian crude, shopping for about 471,000 barrels per day in January this 12 months, accounting for practically 40 p.c of Russian provides to India.
Its plant has relied solely on Russian crude since European Union sanctions had been imposed on the corporate final July.
Nayara just isn’t planning to load Russian oil in April because it shuts its refinery for greater than a month for upkeep from April 10, in line with Reuters.
Pokharna mentioned the way forward for Nayara hangs within the steadiness, with the US unlikely to grant India an overt exemption for the Russia-backed firm to import crude.
Can India change to Venezuelan oil?
India has been a serious shopper of Venezuelan oil previously. At its peak, in 2019, India imported $7.2bn of oil, accounting for just below 7 p.c of whole imports. That stopped after the US slapped sanctions on Venezuelan oil, however some officers of the government-owned Oil and Pure Gasoline Company are nonetheless stationed within the Latin American nation.
Now, main Indian refiners have mentioned they’re open to receiving Venezuelan oil once more, however provided that it’s a viable choice.
For one factor, Venezuela is roughly twice as removed from India as Russia and 5 occasions additional than the Center East, which means a lot increased freight prices.
Venezuelan oil is dearer as properly. “Russian Urals [a medium-heavy crude blend] has been buying and selling at a wide-ranging low cost of about $10-20 per barrel to Brent, whereas Venezuelan Merey presently presents a smaller low cost of round $5-8 per barrel,” Voloshin informed Al Jazeera.
“Importing from Venezuela and forgoing the Russian low cost could be a expensive affair for India,” mentioned Pokharna. “From transportation value to forgoing reductions, it may value India $6-8 extra per barrel – and that could be a big improve within the importing invoice.”
Total, a whole pivot away from Russia may elevate India’s import invoice by $9bn to $11bn – an quantity roughly equal to India’s federal well being price range – per 12 months, in line with Kpler.
“Venezuelan crude should be discounted by at the least $10 to $12 per barrel to be aggressive,” argued Voloshin. “This deeper low cost is important to offset the a lot increased freight prices, elevated insurance coverage premiums for the longer Atlantic voyage, and the considerably increased operational bills required to course of Venezuela’s extra-heavy high-sulfur crude.”
With out deeper reductions, the longer journey and complicated dealing with make Venezuelan oil dearer on a delivered foundation, he added.
One other main problem is that many Indian refiners merely don’t have the services to course of very heavy Venezuelan oil.
Venezuelan crude is a heavy, bitter oil, thick and viscous like molasses, with a excessive sulphur content material requiring advanced, specialised refineries to course of it into gas. Solely a small variety of Indian refineries are geared up to deal with it.
“[Venezuelan oil’s heaviness] makes it an choice just for advanced refineries, leaving out older and smaller refineries,” Pokharna informed Al Jazeera. “The shift is operationally troublesome and would require mixing with dearer gentle crudes.”
Then there’s the query of availability. At the moment, Venezuela produces barely 1,000,000 barrels per day when pushed to its restrict. Even when all manufacturing was despatched to India, it might not match the overall Russian oil import.
The place else may India purchase oil?
India’s Minister Puri has mentioned that New Delhi is seeking to diversify sourcing choices from practically 40 international locations.
As India has lowered Russian imports, it has elevated them from Center Jap nations and different international locations within the Group of the Petroleum Exporting Nations (OPEC). Now, whereas Russia accounts for practically 27 p.c share in India’s oil imports, OPEC nations, led by Iraq and Saudi Arabia, contribute 53 p.c.
Reeling from Trump’s commerce struggle, India has additionally elevated purchases of US oil. American crude imports to India rose by 92 p.c from April to November in 2025 to just about 13 million tons, in comparison with 7.1 million in the identical interval in 2024.
Nevertheless, India could be competing for these provides with the European Union, which has pledged to spend $750bn by 2028 on US vitality and nuclear merchandise.
In the meantime, for Venezuela to return to increased manufacturing, Caracas wants political stability, adjustments in overseas funding and oil legal guidelines, and to clear money owed. That may take time, consultants say.
