Dhaka, Bangladesh – It was nearly midnight, however tens of 1000’s of individuals had been nonetheless gathering for a marketing campaign rally in Gazipur, a garment manufacturing hub north of Bangladesh’s capital, Dhaka.
Many had been ready for hours to listen to Tarique Rahman, who succeeded because the chairman of the Bangladesh Nationalist Occasion (BNP) following the demise of his mom and Bangladesh’s first feminine prime minister, Khaleda Zia, in December.
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BNP leaders noticed the turnout as proof that their get together, lengthy oppressed below 15 years of ousted Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s authorities, was in a position to mobilise supporters and rebuild its power because it seeks to return to energy within the February 12 general election.
Hasina’s Awami League get together was banned from politics final yr by the interim administration of Nobel laureate Muhammad Yunus, leaving the BNP a frontrunner in Thursday’s vote. Its important rival is Jamaat-e-Islami (often known as Jamaat), a resurgent Islamist get together, which has allied with the Nationwide Citizen Occasion (NCP), fashioned by former pupil leaders of the 2024 rebellion that toppled Hasina.
Since returning to Bangladesh on December 25 after practically 17 years of exile in the UK, Rahman, 60, has been on the centre of the BNP’s election marketing campaign, which ended on Tuesday. His rallies drew giant crowds, along with his presence reassuring supporters of the get together’s revival after the arrests, inside splits, and its distance from voters throughout Hasina’s authorities.
The symbolism of his return – seen, accessible, and main from the entrance – carried its personal energy, tapping right into a grassroots base that traces again to his father, Common Ziaur Rahman, a former navy chief whose legacy formed the BNP earlier than his assassination in 1981.
But the passion has more and more been accompanied by unease, leading to an election marketing campaign outlined as a lot by anticipation as by doubt.
Management take a look at: From exile to command
For practically 17 years, Rahman successfully led the BNP from exile in London, counting on intermediaries and digital communication, whereas a lot of the get together’s senior management, together with his mom, Khaleda, confronted arrests, court docket circumstances and political restrictions in Bangladesh. His return introduced his authority nearer to the bottom, but it surely additionally uncovered the issue of changing symbolic management into efficient organisational management.
One of many instant challenges the BNP confronted was imposing self-discipline inside the get together. Some 92 candidates are contesting towards official BNP nominees in 79 of the nation’s 300 constituencies, highlighting persistent factionalism on the native stage.
“This appears greater than at any earlier time,” stated Al Masud Hasanuzzaman, an analyst and professor of political science at Jahangirnagar College.
Furthermore, a current examine by Transparency Worldwide Bangladesh discovered that 91 p.c of political violence recorded since August 5, 2024, concerned BNP activists, a statistic that raises additional questions concerning the get together’s inside management.
Political analyst Dilara Chowdhury, who has studied the nationalist politics of Rahman’s dad and mom, stated the shortage of self-discipline inside the BNP turned more and more seen throughout this yr’s election campaign.
“This can be a main weak spot,” Chowdhury informed Al Jazeera. “He [Rahman] has not been in a position to set up self-discipline inside the get together to date. Insurgent candidates have emerged and, in lots of circumstances, they’re overtly difficult the central management.”
Whereas Hasanuzzaman frames Rahman’s reliance on household legacy as a bonus within the election, Chowdhury sees it as a supply of heightened expectation – and stress.
“To outshine leaders like Khaleda Zia and Ziaur Rahman is rarely straightforward,” Chowdhury stated. “I don’t assume he has but demonstrated that stage of charisma.”
Chowdhury stated the election is the primary decisive take a look at of Rahman’s management. “If he can lead the get together to victory regardless of all these challenges, that will mark his first actual success as a frontrunner in his personal proper.”
‘Little or no homework’
Rahman’s public messaging has additionally drawn scrutiny. Analysts say his speeches, typically combining formidable guarantees with factual inaccuracies, erode confidence, particularly amongst undecided voters.
Reality-checks of a number of of his claims have been extensively shared on-line.
At a rally within the southern district of Faridpur, Rahman stated the realm produces giant portions of soya beans. The declare was shortly challenged, as soya bean just isn’t a significant crop there, with cultivation concentrated primarily in Bangladesh’s southern coastal belt.
In one other occasion, a viral graphic mocked a number of of his pledges as both already carried out or recycled from the 2001-2006 BNP-Jamaat-led authorities, together with declaring the coastal metropolis of Chattogram because the nation’s “industrial capital”.
Analysts and get together insiders say such episodes level to gaps in Rahman’s analysis and management, and complicate his efforts to venture himself as a nationwide chief who is ready.
“Sure, he makes errors in speeches,” admitted a BNP chief in southern Bangladesh, talking on situation of anonymity. “However he was outdoors the nation for a very long time. We consider he’ll enhance.”
Analyst Chowdhury stated his lack of preparation was a problem.
“He has taken cost of the marketing campaign, however there may be little or no homework,” she stated. “He finally ends up saying many issues which might be merely fallacious, like claiming he’ll plant 500 million bushes. That’s not a reputable proposition.”
Chowdhury additionally questioned the feasibility of Rahman’s flagship coverage proposals, together with a “household card” to supply month-to-month money to girls and the unemployed. “When you discuss household playing cards, the plain query is the place the cash will come from,” she stated. “And when you present allowances to the unemployed indefinitely, there’s a threat the financial system turns into much less productive.”
Rahman’s anticorruption rhetoric has additionally didn’t instill confidence amongst individuals, Chowdhury stated. “He’s saying he’ll eradicate corruption, whereas he has nominated 23 mortgage defaulters for the election.”
In a televised handle to the nation on Monday night, Rahman sought to deal with such considerations, acknowledging previous failures below the BNP’s authorities and pledging a tough line on corruption.
“There is no such thing as a different to creating the state and authorities accountable to the individuals,” he stated. “If entrusted with energy, a BNP authorities might be as agency as doable in controlling corruption and restoring the rule of regulation – that is our dedication to the nation.”
Khan Sobayel bin Rafiq, a political commentator and former navy officer, pointed to the hole between Rahman’s private enchantment and the BNP’s potential to counter longstanding narratives about corruption inside its ranks.
“Younger voters aged between 18 and 26 didn’t witness BNP rule,” Sobayel informed Al Jazeera. “A lot of them have internalised the concept that BNP represents corruption and ‘chandabazi’ [extortion]. The get together has not been in a position to decisively flip that notion round.”
Sobayel, who describes himself as a sufferer of Hasina’s hardline insurance policies, himself spent 11 years in compelled exile in Malaysia after he, as a member of a navy committee investigating a 2009 mutiny by troopers from the Bangladesh Rifles regiment, refused to endorse what he known as a “fabricated investigation report” pushed by the federal government.
Thomas Kean, a advisor for Bangladesh and Myanmar on the Worldwide Disaster Group, thinks Bangladesh is unlikely to return to the type of repression seen throughout Hasina’s lengthy years in energy. However he additionally warned that perceptions concerning the BNP on the grassroots stage proceed to form the general public’s belief.
“The management seems to recognise that one thing has essentially modified in Bangladesh,” Kean stated. “On the identical time, allegations of extortion and felony exercise – whether or not correct or not – have broken the get together’s picture, significantly amongst youthful voters.”
‘Loyalty over meritocracy’
On Friday, whereas unveiling the BNP’s election manifesto at a luxurious lodge in Dhaka, Rahman spoke concerning the significance of inserting “the correct individual in the correct place”.
Analysts, in addition to some get together insiders, stated they had been uncertain about whether or not that precept was mirrored in how his marketing campaign staff was assembled.
A BNP chief, talking on situation of anonymity owing to the sensitivity of inside get together issues throughout an election, stated Rahman’s public communication shifted after his return, formed by advisers who accompanied him throughout his years in exile.
“He introduced his shut aides from London, who, like him, had been away from Bangladesh for 17 years,” the chief informed Al Jazeera. “Rather a lot has modified in that point, and there’s a notion that they’ve struggled to understand the modified realities.”
The get together insider stated Rahman’s interactions with individuals are being tightly managed, limiting his publicity to grassroots suggestions regardless of his intensive travels throughout the nation. “Though he’s travelling throughout Bangladesh, he stays remoted from floor actuality,” the BNP chief stated.
The get together insider additionally alleged that Rahman “opted for loyalty over meritocracy”.
“You possibly can run a celebration with people who find themselves loyal to you, however not a authorities. That is his largest problem. If he needs to manipulate, he might want to promote meritocracy and usher in professionals who can supply sound recommendation – and that has been lacking to date.”
Analyst Chowdhury agreed, saying the difficulty has created tensions inside the BNP, with many native leaders who endured arrests and hardships throughout Hasina’s authorities feeling sidelined. This might undermine Rahman’s enchantment, significantly amongst youthful voters.
“Whereas he was in London, the individuals round him there at the moment are being given extra significance than those that stood by him contained in the nation,” she informed Al Jazeera. “There’s a battle between these teams.”
Will dynasty undermine political legitimacy?
Asif Mohammad Shahan, a professor of growth research at Dhaka College, thinks Rahman is in “a troublesome place”.
“If the get together doesn’t win by a landslide, he might be blamed. If it wins comfortably, individuals will say it was anticipated. There is no such thing as a clear win for him,” he informed Al Jazeera.
Central to each his enchantment and the criticism he faces is Rahman’s lineage.
Because the son of former President Ziaur Rahman and three-time chief Khaleda, he embodies a political dynasty that many youthful voters say they wish to transfer past, at the same time as that legacy continues to mobilise individuals throughout the nation.
BNP leaders, nonetheless, reject the concept that being a part of a dynasty undermines political legitimacy.
In a current interview with Al Jazeera, BNP Secretary-Common Mirza Fakhrul Islam Alamgir argued that political inheritance is frequent throughout South Asia and shouldn’t disqualify a frontrunner if he’s “succesful, accountable and topic to public scrutiny”.
Analysts take a extra nuanced view, regardless of seeing Rahman as a number one contender for the premiership.
Sobayel bin Rafiq, the previous navy officer, distinguishes the person and his organisation. “Tarique Rahman as an individual and the BNP as a celebration are two various things,” he stated. “I wish to see him because the prime minister. However general, the get together’s efficiency as an organisation has not been robust.”
Analyst Chowdhury factors to a special actuality.
“It appears a section of the civil and navy paperwork could assist a BNP victory as a result of they see it as a return to a well-recognized established order, the place they will defend their vested pursuits,” she stated.
For Rahman, nonetheless, the election isn’t just a contest for energy, however a referendum on whether or not his return from exile marks a real break from the previous or merely a well-recognized cycle below new management.
“If any unintentional errors had been made whereas governing the nation previously, I sincerely apologise to the individuals,” he stated in his handle to the nation on Monday. “Studying from these errors, and constructing on our achievements, we wish to create a protected Bangladesh for the current and future generations.”
