Knowledge from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada (IRCC) has indicated that 31,610 people with legitimate post-graduation work permits (PGWPs) as at September 30, may have their visas expire by December 31 this 12 months.
General, initially of 2025, virtually one million short-term residents in Canada have confronted or are presently dealing with visa expiry this 12 months.
A breakdown of the tough estimate exhibits that 300,000 individuals on short-term overseas employee program (TFWP), 200,000 (PGWP) holders and greater than 400,000 short-term residents must renew or regulate their standing.
This looming expiry date has forged a shadow over the longer term prospects of many graduates who’re in debt for abroad pupil charges with the intention of securing everlasting residency.
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Nonetheless, immigration specialists advise that anybody in that scenario might change standing by renewing, changing to everlasting residency, or acquiring one other sort of allow. Therefore expiration doesn’t all the time imply ‘out of standing’.
In response to IRCC knowledge, of the roughly 115,000 PGWP holders whose visas already expired someday in 2025, solely 12 per cent efficiently had their work permits prolonged or moved to an alternate allow.
This determine doesn’t embrace those that transitioned on to everlasting residency, which accounted for an additional 12 per cent of recent everlasting residents in 2022.
The difficulty has prompted shut scrutiny from economists and immigration specialists, significantly given the dearth of readability on what number of short-term residents finally stay within the nation after their visas lapse.
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Benjamin Tal, deputy chief economist, CIBC highlighted the magnitude of the unauthorised inhabitants in an April report, saying, “What number of expired visa-holders stay and are nonetheless residents of Canada? In earlier analysis, we estimated that quantity to be shut to 1 million, with the overwhelming majority being expired short-term visa-holders who arrived in Canada legally, so long as a era (or two) in the past.”
The newest figures exhibits short-term residents account for 7.3 per cent of Canada’s total inhabitants (three million people), although this determine excludes those that stay on expired visas whereas searching for a path to everlasting standing. The federal authorities intends to cut back this share to five per cent by the tip of 2027.
The allow deadline and deportation threat
Worldwide graduates are at critical threat of deportation until their purposes for an extension or a brand new allow are accepted earlier than the deadline.
If a piece allow expires with out extension, a person has 90 days to use for restoration, throughout which period they need to stop working however might legally stay in Canada. Nonetheless, if that 90-day grace interval elapses with out motion, the person should depart the nation instantly.
Failure to conform might end in deportation, severely complicating any future makes an attempt to enter.
IRCC representatives have said that it doesn’t have an estimate of how many individuals are presently within the nation on expired PGWPs, however harassed, “As soon as somebody receives a allow, they need to abide by the situation of their allow, together with the authorized requirement to depart Canada on the finish of the authorised interval of keep.”
Final 12 months, the Canada Border Companies Company deported roughly 18,000 individuals, although a particular breakdown by allow sort shouldn’t be disclosed.
Surge in college students and coverage debate
The present disaster stems from a large surge in worldwide pupil recruitment during the last 5 years, largely to cowl pandemic-era job shortages. The variety of abroad college students soared from round 350,000 in 2015 to over one million by 2023.
PGWPs, that are one- to three-year visas, mirrored this progress, rising from 33,615 to 240,200 over the identical interval, a staggering enhance of greater than 600 per cent.
Whereas the variety of expiring PGWPs this 12 months is sharply down from the 70,000 on account of lapse in the identical interval final 12 months, the conversion price stays low.
