By Olufemi Aduwo
Because the 2027 basic elections inch ever nearer, it’s crucial that opposition forces, fractured and disoriented in 2023, have interaction in a sober and trustworthy introspection.
This introspection should be rooted not in emotion or ego, however in empirical knowledge, historic precedent, and the logic of electoral pragmatism.
Within the 2019 presidential election, fomer VP Atiku Abubakar of the Individuals’s Democratic Celebration (PDP) secured 11,262,978 votes, whereas President Muhammadu Buhari of the All Progressives Congress (APC) polled 15,191,847.
A regional disaggregation tells its personal story: Nevertheless, the dynamics shifted significantly in 2023, with the emergence of Peter Obi underneath the Labour Celebration—a improvement that basically altered the nation’s electoral panorama.
The official outcomes of that election have been:
Bola Tinubu (APC) – 8,794,726
Atiku Abubakar (PDP) – 6,984,520
Peter Obi (LP) – 6,101,533
Zone-by-zone breakdown of the 2023 outcomes reveals stark modifications: These figures inform a compelling story: Atiku Abubakar’s once-solid grip on the South-South, South-East, and North-Central areas has been basically eroded.
In 2019, he secured 72% of the South-South and 80% of the South-East. By 2023, Obi had seized management, successful 84% within the South-East, main within the South-South with 43%, and narrowly defeating Atiku within the North-Central.
This isn’t a marginal shift, it’s seismic. No critical opposition platform can ignore such realignment.
That Peter Obi, working for the primary time underneath a comparatively nascent social gathering, garnered over six million votes with out the monetary warfare chest or nationwide equipment of the PDP factors to an natural and rising help base, particularly amongst Nigeria’s burgeoning youth inhabitants.
It’s value recalling that Atiku Abubakar himself was a key a part of the 2015 opposition coalition that unseated President Goodluck Jonathan on the grounds that Jonathan reneged on a supposed inner understanding to not search re-election.
Atiku has at all times introduced himself as a unifier and an advocate of zoning and justice.
Forward of the 2023 elections, he even acknowledged that have been the PDP to micro-zone the presidential ticket to the South-East, he wouldn’t contest.
That place resonated with many. Sadly, inner contradictions and the ambitions of then-Governor Nyesom Wike annoyed this ethical readability.
Wike pushed for a broader Southern zoning, solely to later undermine the PDP from inside.
Now, with Buhari out of the equation and the APC underneath Tinubu laying the groundwork for a northern succession in 2031, the opposition should reevaluate its relevance.
That each Peter Obi and Atiku Abubakar are at the moment aligned underneath the African Democratic Congress (ADC) isn’t a trivial coincidence—it’s an historic alternative. The convergence of necessity, justice, demographics, and political technique might not current itself once more.
The case for Peter Obi because the presidential candidate of a unified opposition isn’t constructed on sentimentality, however chilly and onerous logic.
Obi has demonstrated the flexibility to encourage Nigeria’s youth, win the belief of Southern electorates, and make electoral good points within the pivotal North Central area.
In 2023, he didn’t merely match Atiku within the Center Belt, he outperformed him. That isn’t an accident; it displays a shifting nationwide consciousness, one which favours integrity, accountability and meritocracy over transactional politics.
The northern area stays electorally vital, little doubt. However Nigeria’s democracy is maturing. No single area can indefinitely dictate nationwide outcomes. The lesson of 2023 is obvious: a divided opposition assures APC victory. A united opposition, coalescing round Peter Obi with Atiku Abubakar’s knowledge and nationwide community behind him, poses a real risk to APC dominance.
Peter Obi’s 2023 efficiency defied a long time of political orthodoxy.
He proved that construction, whereas helpful, isn’t invincible.
He dismantled long-standing political fortresses, transformed supposedly peripheral areas into aggressive zones, and sparked a civic motion that transcends ethnicity, faith, and sophistication.
The ADC’s increasing construction might effectively present the suitable platform to consolidate these good points and mission a reputable, united entrance in 2027. However that window won’t stay open indefinitely.
The numbers don’t lie. The individuals have shifted. The tide has turned. The one query that continues to be is whether or not the opposition will learn the indicators—or sleepwalk, as soon as once more, into one other cycle of avoidable defeat.
•Aduwo is President & Everlasting Consultant, Centre for Conference on Democratic Integrity Ltd/Gte (CCDI) to the ECOSOC, United Nations. He’s the primary Nigerian accredited by the UK Electoral Fee as a International Election Observer in 2006, noticed all basic elections organised by INEC from 2003 to 2015, and served as Chief Technical Adviser to a international election statement mission in 2019 and 2023.
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