By Clifford Ndujihe, Politics Editor
FOR over one yr, main opposition figures in Nigeria have been criticising the ruling All Progressives Congress, APC -administration of President Bola Tinubu. Aside from pooh-poohing his insurance policies, which they mentioned had introduced struggling and hardship on the citizenry, they claimed that the federal government was muzzling the opposition to enthrone a one-party state, which they mentioned is a menace to democracy.
Consequently, they vowed to return collectively, no matter occasion affiliations, to cease APC and Tinubu in 2027 and “rescue” Nigerians from the vice grip of the ruling occasion.
High opposition leaders, who began the campaign embody former Vice President and 2023 Presidential Candidate of the Folks’s Democratic Get together, PDP, Alhaji Atiku Abubakar; former Anambra State Governor and 2023 Presidential Commonplace bearer of the Labour Get together, LP, Mr.Peter Obi; Former Kano State Governor and 2023 Presidential flag bearer of the New Nigeria Folks’s Get together, NNPP,, Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso; and Nationwide Chairman of the African Democratic Congress, ADC, Chief Ralphs Okey Nwosu amongst others.
Emergence of ADC coalition
A number of months after, and after broad consultations, a coalition was fashioned. The leaders resolved to undertake the ADC because it’s platform for the 2027 polls.
On the unveiling of the ADC coalition on July 2, 2025, a bunch of opposition leaders from many events together with APC, LP, and PDP, signed up. They embody former Senate President David Mark; former Rivers State Governor and Transport Minister, Mr Rotimi Amaechi; former Kaduna State Governor, Malam Nasir el-Rufai; former Osun State Governor and Inside Minister, Engr Rauf Aregbesola and serving lawmakers at federal and state ranges.
Nationwide officers of the ADC led by Nwosu resigned their posts for a brand new management led by Mark (interim nationwide chairman) and Aregbesola (interim nationwide secretary) to mount the saddle with a vow to beat Tinubu in 2027.
Can the coalition cease Tinubu in 2027? Will the coalition repeat the 2015 feat? Within the annals of electioneering in Nigeria, the then nascent APC turned the primary opposition occasion to beat a ruling occasion in a presidential election. It was additionally the primary time the opposition cast a profitable alliance within the nation.
How APC floored the ruling occasion
The transfer to berth APC began earlier than 2010 however couldn’t be concretised in time for the 2011 polls. The work continued after and in 2013, lower than two years to the 2015 election, the Motion Congress of Nigeria, ACN; Congress for Progressive Change, CPC; All Nigeria Folks’s Get together, ANPP; factions of the All Progressives Grand Alliance, APGA, and Democratic Folks’s Get together, DPP, joined forces to type APC. They utilized to the Impartial Nationwide Electoral Fee, INEC, and received listed.
Fielding former Army Head of State, Main-Normal Muhammadu Buhari, who died lately, as presidential commonplace bearer, the APC, in a eager contest, beat re-election-seeking President Goodluck Jonathan and ended the 16 years reign of the PDP.
In 2027, the APC can be 12 years within the saddle. Can the coalition cease the ruling occasion from attaining victory and equalling PDP’s 16 years by 2031?
Nagging questions 465 days to election
As of now, precisely 465 days to the February 20, 2027 presidential election, it’s troublesome to reply these questions affirmatively.
Hurdles earlier than opposition
Causes: Opposition events are nonetheless disunited and are at daggers drawn in opposition to each other. In contrast to throughout the formation of APC, when the proponents left their previous events, many prime photographs, governors, and others are but to affix the coalition and lawmakers are but to formalise their defections within the varied chambers.
Some Senators like Aminu Tambuwal, Abdul Ningi, Enyinnaya Abaribe, Ireti Kingibe, and Austin Akobundu of Abia Central are romancing with the ADC, however haven’t formally introduced as required within the Senate.
Luring Obi to PDP
A few of these backing the coalition, like Alhaji Sule Lamido, mentioned they’d stay of their unique events and work for the coalition. Even, Peter Obi, a serious kingpin, is but to desert LP and absolutely declare for ADC. On Wednesday, leaders of the PDP, together with former Data Minister, Prof Jerry Gana and Abduljabbar Rufai, mentioned they have been in talks with Obi and wooing him to return to the PDP.
Particularly, Gana, a founding member of the PDP, mentioned Obi, operating on the platform of the PDP, would beat any contender within the North. “I’m a researcher, and I analysis opinions. Within the northern states, Peter Obi beneath the PDP will defeat any candidate as a result of our persons are very fair-minded,” he mentioned.
On Thursday, Obi confirmed the overtures from the PDP and mentioned he was open to collaborations that might rescue the nation.
Talking by the Nationwide Coordinator of the Obodient Motion, Dr Yunusa Tanko, he mentioned he was open to discussions with individuals and political paries that may convey concerning the new Nigeria all of us hope and pray for.
PDP, SDP assault ADC
Penultimate week, the PDP and Social Democratic Get together, SDP, attacked the coalition. Whereas the PDP mentioned it remained the viable different to the APC, it vowed to sanction any of its lawmakers who defects to the ADC. On its half, the SDP spoke in like method and expelled el-Rufai for allegedly not becoming a member of the SDP correctly and utilizing the title of the occasion to commerce within the ADC.
Battle for ADC ticket
There’s additionally the difficulty of who will fly the flag of the ADC among the many quartet of Atiku, Obi, Amaechi and el-Rufai. There are speculations that the leaders could abandon the ADC in the event that they fail to get the ticket.
Nevertheless, the leaders have dismissed these speculations as unfounded insisting that the coalition is about Nigeria not the ambitions of the gladiators angling for the presidency.
Inside crises in opposition events
Additionally, a lot of the main opposition events are enmeshed in protracted crises that could possibly be terminal. The PDP is but to wriggle out from the management and affect of former Rivers State Governor and Federal Capital Territory Minister, Mr Nyesom Wike, who as PDP governor, labored for Tinubu’s election and is backing the president for a second time period. With some governors, lawmakers and leaders defecting to the APC and ADC, the PDP has an enormous activity at hand to stay very robust and honest effectively within the 2027 polls.
LP, one occasion, three faces
For the LP, there are two major factions and a 3rd within the shadows led Apapa with Abayomi Arabambi as spokesman: One of many factions is led by Julius Abure, and the opposite by Nenadi Usman, who enjoys the help of most stakeholders, together with Obi, Governor Alex Otti of Abia State, Nigerian Labour Congress, NLC, and Commerce Union Congress of Nigeria, TUC and so forth.
INEC is but to make a pronouncement on which faction it helps despite a Supreme Courtroom verdict of April 4, 2025, which each factions declare to be of their favour. On INEC’s web site, Abure is listed as Nationwide Chairman. The electoral umpire says it’s nonetheless finding out the Supreme Courtroom judgement, it has nonetheless refused to ask Abure for any of its conferences because the Supreme Courtroom determination.
New faction in ADC
Within the ADC, Mr Nafi’u Bala, on Thursday, introduced himself as nationwide chairman, claiming that outsiders had hijacked the occasion opposite to its ethos and aims. Bala was deputy to Nwosu. ADC leaders dismissed Bala’s announcement as balderdash, stating that he willingly resigned as deputy nationwide chairman and displayed his letter of resignation.
The final is but to be heard on this problem, which can represent a drag on the political flight of the ADC coalition.
Bashing from ruling occasion
Aside from the inner fissures, the opposition events are additionally dealing with bashing from the ruling APC, which their leaders termed plot to make Nigeria a one-party state. They alleged that the APC was utilizing anti-graft companies to ‘power’ some opposition governors, lawmakers and stalwarts to affix the ruling occasion.
Presently, the APC has 23 of the 36 governors, 70 senators and majority within the Home of Representatives.
The PDP has 28 senators and 10 governors. The LP has one governor and 5 senators, APGA and NNPP has one governor and one senator every whereas the SDP has two senators
The APC had 20 governors in 2023 and fewer than 60 senators after the polls.
Alleged harassment of LP leaders
The Senator Nenadi Usman-led LP, on Wednesday raised alarm over harassment of its leaders by safety companies primarily based on a petition by Arambambi that key LP leaders have been plotting to overthrow President Tinubu beneath the guise of a protest themed: “A million man march” to reclaim “the previous nationwide secretariat of the occasion at present occupied by erswhile chairman, Julius Abure, at Utako, Abuja.”
Claiming that safety brokers had been harassing key LP leaders on the power of the petition, it warned that the trail “is a slippery slope that endangers our democracy” and known as on safety companies to totally examine these behind the petition and an agenda to warmth up the polity.
How APC’s stifling opposition —Bafarawa, Nwosu
Former Sokoto State Governor, Alhaji Attahiru Bafarawa, lately urged President Tinubu to permit the opposition to flourish. He warned that stifling dissent would hurt the nation’s democracy, and reminded Tinubu that his personal rise to energy was made potential by a thriving opposition.
In an open letter, Bafarawa instructed Tinubu: ”These earlier than you allowed opposition politics to exist. You’re a product of opposition politics. It might be a grave mistake to suppress it now,” he said. Anybody advising you to muzzle the opposition is deceptive you. Democracy dies the place opposition is stifled, and with out democracy, good governance, peace, and progress undergo.”
He additionally warned in opposition to makes an attempt to create a one-party state, calling it a harmful path that would result in instability.
“Nigeria can’t afford a one-party system. A powerful democratic order is important for nationwide progress and for future generations. If previous leaders had destroyed the opposition, you wouldn’t have had a platform to succeed in your present place. Moderately than weaken the opposition, it could be wiser to institutionalise robust political events.”
On his half, Nwosu, on Wednesday claimed that he turned down profitable provides—together with three ministerial slots and a staggering ¦ 10 billion—in change for halting ADC’s position because the principal opposition coalition platform within the nation.
He additionally mentioned that the ruling occasion had despatched infiltrators to the ADC and vowed that they’d be smoked out
Addressing newsmen in Abuja on Wednesday, Nwosu said that regardless of strain from highly effective political figures and shut associates, he made the “troublesome however patriotic determination” to prioritize Nigeria’s democratic stability over private achieve.
“I don’t need Nigeria to grow to be a one-party state. Regardless that I used to be suggested by individuals near me not to surrender my place as Nationwide Chairman, I selected Nigeria first,” Nwosu declared.
Requested what the federal government had finished to destroy the coalition, Nwosu mentioned: They’ve used them (infiltrators) to go to court docket to say they don’t agree with what we’re doing and that it must be stopped.”
As a substitute of stifling opposition, Nwosu urged the federal government to permit a free democratic course of as a substitute and interact the citizenry.
Nevertheless, the Presidency picked holes in Nwosu’s claims of three ministerial slots and bribe to cease the ADC from being the coalition platform.
Daniel Bwala, particular adviser on Coverage Communications to President Tinubu, mentioned Nwosu lied as a result of “no authorities official in our administration can promise or grant ministerial slots however Mr. President.”
Coalition’s defective steps — Olu Fasan
Requested to share his ideas on the possibilities of the rising coalition of Atiku, Obi, Amaechi, El-Rufai, and David Mark amongst others to cease Tinubu in 2027 through ADC, Dr Olu Fasan, a journalist, lawyer, economist and educational, mentioned the coalition seems formidable however not sure-footed.
His phrases: “Politics in Nigeria is all about elite competitors for energy and political events, as I argued earlier, are mere particular goal automobiles for capturing the state, with completely nothing distinguishing them by way of ideologies, insurance policies or points. All of these coming collectively beneath the ADC have been both previously within the PDP or within the APC, and a few have been in each. Do they disagree with the APC due to what the occasion stands for? No.Lots of them will fortunately return to or be a part of the APC tomorrow, if the circumstances allow.
“So, the underside line is that their solely disagreement is with President Tinubu, who, after all, at present embodies the APC. They disagree with Tinubu’s management type, governance type and buccaneering method to politics. And fact be instructed, Tinubu has ruled with utter vanity. Right here’s is somebody who received simply 37 per cent of the favored vote and but guidelines magisterially as if he received a landslide, arrogating unprecedented powers to himself and deploying them whimsically. Inside simply two years in workplace, Tinubu has allowed greater than seven nationwide monuments to be named after him. Each patriotic Nigerian must be appalled by that personalisation of the state. So, it’s not laborious to see why opposition politicians are ganging up in opposition to him.
“In concept, the coalition is formidable as a result of, going by the votes that Atiku Abubakar and Peter Obi secured within the 2023 presidential election, the coalition controls 55 per cent of the favored vote in opposition to Tinubu’s 37 per cent. However that’s the speculation. In observe, they’re unlikely to stay united due to conflicting presidential ambitions. As an illustration, there is no such thing as a assure that Atiku’s supporters will help Obi and vice versa. Second, in my opinion, the coalition’s emergence shouldn’t be sure-footed. If they’re really severe about uniting to defeat Tinubu in 2027, why did they not put their cash the place their mouth is by forming a brand new occasion as a substitute of hijacking an present hitherto moribund occasion?
“The optic shouldn’t be good. It’s as if the coalition has simply “rented” the ADC for 2027. Nigerians knew the APC was a severe opposition occasion when a number of events dissolved themselves and collapsed their buildings into the brand new occasion. Some mentioned INEC wouldn’t register a celebration fashioned by the coalition, however that’s inconceivable. If that have been to occur, INEC would have compromised 2027 irredeemably. So, the coalition must make the ADC appear to be a reputable political occasion, not a rented car for 2027.
“However the third, maybe most severe, problem the coalition will face is that it may not be simple to defeat a ruthless incumbent until they provide you with a stronger candidate, a formidable successful technique and a reputable different agenda for presidency. The coalition can’t simply inform Nigerians that Tinubu and the APC are dangerous, they need to say how they’d be completely different in the event that they changed him.”
Tinubu’ll win with over 15m votes — Felix
Certainly, :one of many 2023 presidential aspirants of the APC, Dr Nicolas Felix has dismissed the ADC as a celebration constructed on sand, saying President Tinubu would win the 2027 presidential election with at the least 15 million votes.
Felix, supported by the Deputy Nationwide Lady Chief of the APC, Hajia Zainab Ibrahim, spoke in Suleja, Niger State the place he distributed 1000’s of litres of gas to Nigerians, on Thursday.
ADC not a menace to APC
In accordance with him, there was nothing unsuitable in opposition components gathering themselves right into a coalition, saying they are going to scatter in the identical method that they’d gathered.
He mentioned: “In a democracy, it’s essential to have opposition. We’re not threatened. They’re on the market campaigning. Thus far, we have now not heard something they need to do anyway. So for us as a celebration, I don’t see any menace right here. There isn’t a menace on this coalition. We would like them to coalesce. Like I mentioned the opposite day, they are going to collect, however they are going to scatter as a result of they don’t have anything to supply. Their intention shouldn’t be pure. Their motive shouldn’t be pure.
“So far as we’re involved within the APC, come 2027, President Bola Tinubu goes to don’t have anything lower than 15 million votes. We all know that’s going to occur. So there is no such thing as a menace with the ADC or no matter coalition. Allow them to come. When the time comes for campaigns, we’re going to roll out the scorecard of Mr President.”
Will opposition permit APC run away with victory?
Giving the challenges within the opposition events and the coalition, and alleged stifling of the opposition some analysts have expressed fears that the ruling occasion could win the election with little or no contest.
To cease this, the main opposition events are anticipated to unite, subjugate ambitions of particular person aspirants to collective good, resist alleged juicy carrots and provides of the APC, and discipline a robust candidate in opposition to Tinubu.
Whether or not or not the opposition can do these is a query of time.
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